Working Age Adult Population Projections

Population projections for working age (18-65-years) by 2035 are 501,130 people compared to 500,580 people in 2026. The 2021 Census indicates that there are an estimated 3,400 people aged over 15 years in West Sussex who are living with a moderate to severe learning disability and 7,200 adults living with autism (Our People and Places, in the Working Together 2022-23 page).

The Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID) reports that the numbers of people aged over 18 years with a learning disability receiving long term support from the local authority increased from 1,970 in 2014/15 to 2,185 in 2019/20 but also note that the proportion of people per 1,000 population has remained static at around 3.18 for the 4 years up to 2019/20 (OHID - Learning Disability Profiles on the Fingertips Department of Health & Social Care website).

The numbers of children with learning difficulties and Autism have increased by 4% and 40% respectively between 2015 and 2020 indicating increasing numbers of people with these lifelong needs in future adult populations.

Dementia Prevalence

The image of the graph below shows dementia prevalence projections in West Sussex from 2024 to 2035. Currently, 7% of the older people population in West Sussex are estimated to have dementia (circa 15,000 people). This is projected to grow by 30% by 2035. The number of residents with dementia and at least two other long-term conditions is projected to increase from 8,000 in 2022 to 13,700 in 2035. The prevalence of dementia projections for 2035 are highest in Arun, followed by Chichester and Horsham. It is estimated that there will be lower levels of dementia prevalence in Adur and Crawley compared to other areas.

Long-Term Conditions and Co-Morbidities

WSCC Public Health data suggests that the projected numbers of people with substantial dependency (medium or high) age 65 and over with three or more diseases could increase by 52.9% between 2022 and 2035. For older people with dementia, with two or more diseases the increase is estimated to be 70.2% over the same period. These figures are significant for all forms of care and predicting demand, including for care and support at home.