Projecting future demand for adult social care is not an exact science but different data and analyses can be used to build up scenarios and possibilities.
The following table illustrates the projected change in demand from older people by level of dependency, based on estimates from the Council’s Public Health Team:
- Independent: Supervision or help is not essential.
- Low Dependency: People need some help but less than daily.
- Medium dependency: People need help at regular times each day.
- High dependency: People need 24-hour care.
It is anticipated that people with low and medium dependency would aim to be supported in the community and in their own home where possible. As we start to look at high levels of dependency this is where residential provision and nursing care provision may be required.
| Dependency | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 |
| Independent |
125,300 |
136,300 (+8.8%) |
153,000 (+22.1%) |
166,100 (+32.6%) |
| Low |
54,700 |
55,500 (1.4%) |
62,900 (+14.9%) |
71,400 (+30.4%) |
| Medium |
9,800 |
9,600 (-2.2%) |
9,700 (-0.9%) |
10,100 (+3.4%) |
| High |
16,000 |
16,500 (+3.5%) |
17,800 (+11.6%) |
19,500 (+22.4%) |
Residential and nursing care is projected to be primarily high dependency. Those with high dependency are projected to increase by 22.4% between 2022 and 2035. Each area of West Sussex is projected to have increased medium and high dependency with Arun, Horsham, and Chichester having the highest of these levels of dependency.
| Area | 2022 Medium & High Dependency Total | 2035 Medium & High Dependency Total | Change |
| Adur |
1,900 |
2,100 |
200 |
| Arun |
6,000 |
7,000 |
1,000 |
| Chichester |
4,300 |
5,000 |
700 |
| Crawley |
1,900 |
2,100 |
200 |
| Horsham |
4,200 |
5,200 |
1,000 |
| Mid Sussex |
4,000 |
4,700 |
700 |
| Worthing |
3,200 |
3,700 |
500 |
| Total |
25,500 |
29,800 |
4,300 |